CRIB II score versus gestational age and birth weight in preterm infant mortality prediction: who will win the bet?

摘要

Introduction. In neonatology, various illness severity scores have been developed to predict mortality and morbidity risk in neonates. The aim of our study was to validate the ability of the ‘Clinical Risk Index for Babies’ (CRIB) II score to predict mortality in neonates born before 32 weeks’ gestation in a level 3 neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), setting.Materials and Methods. Prospective birth cohort study including all live-born neonates of 32 weeks’ gestation or less. . CRIB II score was calculated and the predicted mortality was compared with the observed mortality. Discrimination (the ability of the score to correctly predict survival or death) was assessed by calculating the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) and its associated area under the curve (AUC).Results. The ROC curve analysis in our study showed that the AUC was 0.9008 suggesting that mortality prediction was 90% accurate for all infants. Sensitivity and specificity were 77% and 88% respectively. In our study population, the CRIB II score appears to be more accurate than gestational age and birth weight in predicting mortality.Conclusions. The CRIB II scoring system is a useful tool for predicting mortality and morbidity in NICUs, and also a useful tool for evaluating the variations in mortality and other outcomes seen between different NICUs.